The Unsuccessful Attempt to Host Cop31 Looks Like a Mess – But It Could In Fact Be the Best Result Possible

Well. On one hand, the nation's protracted campaign to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to host the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations feared a conference obstructed from the leadership if his government led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.