Keir Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.