From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro

Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty regarding the American military actions on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “run” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – they set a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation saw its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and abduct its leader – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.