Everyday Murders in Mexico Decline 37% Under President Sheinbaum, As per Official Statistics

The typical count of per-day murders per month in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per new administrative figures. But, public safety experts have cautioned that homicide data may not point to enhanced countrywide security.

Marked Drop in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in last November versus roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September of last year. This announcement was provided by the chief of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that have been recorded over these months is remarkably important,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, adding that last month the smallest figure of homicides were recorded for any single November in the last decade.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Fierce drug cartel rivalries, combined with the government’s highly military campaigns to confront the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent times. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate more than 4x higher than the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security plan for an ostensibly sharper reduction in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a strategy, there is tracking of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan is effective. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced collaboration between various agencies.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, security researchers cautioned that using homicide data to draw a conclusion of pacification was flawed. This is especially true in light of the increase in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be excellent news if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the murder data and think: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively positive.”

According to the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the identical period last year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer useful for gauging the reality of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the desire to correctly recognize and classify corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was additionally problematic because it could obscure periods when there were particularly spiking levels of killings.

“Using the per-day mean makes spikes of violence unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress

Where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and this past November for high-impact offenses, according to official figures. Over 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Anger

Yet in spite of these measures, Mexico continues to be beset by severe bloodshed, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-driven conflict. Recently there was a notable killing of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and across the country to express their anger at corruption and drug violence.

“The government shares [data] in a manner to construct a picture of security. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, socially it’s very problematic,” Vargas remarked.