A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
